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Trading/Services, Hotels, IPC and Technology: Inari Amertron

by Liew Jia Teng

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From penny stock to billion-ringgit tech pick

Inari Amertron Bhd was a thinly traded penny stock just a little over three years ago. Closing at RM3.09 on Aug 9, the company was worth easily 10 times more at nearly RM3 billion — and that is one-fifth off its peak of RM3.6 billion in December 2015, when sentiment on Apple Inc’s global iPhone sales was still relatively strong.

Even so, shareholders who bought Inari’s shares early on would still be sitting on very good gains. Not only has the country’s largest semiconductor player been generous in paying dividends, it has also delivered a stunning share price performance.

Based on The Edge Billion Ringgit Club awards’ judging criteria, total returns on Inari’s shares were more than 130% between end-March 2013 and end-March this year.

Specifically, the stock has grown an impressive 11 times in the last three years from 26.4 sen on March 29, 2013. It has also been consistently paying at least 30% of its earnings annually as dividends since its listing in June 2011. In fact, the RM51 million paid out in FY2015 was significantly above FY2012’s RM9.9 million and FY2013’s RM17.2 million, although the payout ratio was highest in FY2013 at 47.5%.

Today, Inari’s institutional investors include the Employees Provident Fund, Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan), Norges Bank Investment Management, Prudential Unit Trusts, Rochdale Investment Management and Kenanga Unit Trust Bhd.

Most analysts see limited upside in the coming months, though. There are five analysts with a “buy” recommendation versus five saying “hold” and no “sell” call, Bloomberg data shows at the time of writing. Target prices ranged from Macquarie Research’s RM2.58 a share to Affin Hwang Investment Bank’s RM3.54, averaging at RM3.17 — not that far away from current levels.

In a note to clients on May 18, CIMB Equity

Research analyst Mohd Shanaz Noor Azam blames the stock’s decline on weak sentiment across the sector following the decline in Apple’s iPhone production and strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar. CIMB has a RM3.15 target price and an “add” recommendation.

Similarly, Affin Hwang Capital analyst Kevin Low highlights in a June 14 note that Inari’s near-term outlook remains encouraging with a likely earnings rebound set for 4QFY2016 following key customer Broadcom Ltd’s upbeat guidance for its wireless segment. Moreover, long-term drivers are in place as Inari further entrenches itself in the data network segment.

Apart from the usual strong seasonal ramp-up, Low opines that the next-generation phones are also expected to see higher radio frequency (RF) content, which is consistent with his projection for Inari’s RF segment.

“We reaffirm our ‘buy’ rating and 12-month target price of RM3.54, based on an unchanged 18 times 2017 price-earnings ratio. Key risks to our call would be a slowdown in global demand for smart devices, rapid average selling price erosion, loss of customer base and the introduction of new technologies that may render Inari’s products obsolete,” he says, adding that Inari remains a country top pick for 2016.

Moving forward, Affin Hwang expects Inari to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 40% from FY2016 to FY2018. On a per share basis, the company is expected to pay a net dividend of 6.5 sen, 7.6 sen and 9.2 sen, offering a yield of 2.2%, 2.6% and 3.1% for FY2016, FY2017 and FY2018 respectively.

A quick check of Inari’s balance sheet shows that the company should be able to maintain its dividend payouts as its cash and bank balances have increased steadily from RM15.39 million in FY2011 to RM298.59 million in FY2015.